US Bullying African States To Support War
The East African (Nairobi) NEWS March 6, 2003
by Kevin J. Kelley
New York
AS THE UN Security Council nears a showdown vote on war against Iraq, the United States is making an all-out effort to enlist three key African nations in what critics are calling a "coalition of the coerced."
Angola, Cameroon and Guinea, each with a potential swing vote on the Security Council, are the focus of intensive American lobbying in the run-up to the March 7 vote on a US-sponsored resolution authorising military force against Iraq. US officials pressing the three countries are engaging in "bullying and acts tantamount to bribery," according to a Washington-based think tank.
The US preferential trade scheme known as the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa) may be used as a lever to persuade Cameroon and Guinea to support the Iraq war resolution, warns the Institute for Policy Studies, a left-of-centre think tank. In an analysis of how the US is assembling a "coalition of the coerced," the institute points to a stipulation in the Agoa law requiring that nations "not engage in activities that undermine United States national security or foreign policy interests." Failure to vote in Washington's favour in the Security Council could therefore jeopardise Cameroon's and Guinea's eligibility for Agoa trade benefits, the Institute suggests.
Angola has not yet qualified for Agoa because of US objections to the country's record on human-rights and corruption. Inclusion in the trade programme might thus be offered as a reward for Angolan compliance on the Iraq issue.
In addition, Angola's economy is heavily dependent on oil exports to the US and on investments by American energy companies. The war-ravaged country is also seeking reconstruction funding from the World Bank and International Monetary Fund, both of which are strongly influenced by US foreign-policy calculations.
In return for supporting war on Iraq, the Angolan government could see a softening of IMF loan conditions, a London-based advocacy group warned last week.
Angola's ruling elite has stolen roughly $1 billion in oil revenues in each of the past six years, reports Global Witness. And the group suggests that the high-level looters may insist that the IMF ease its financial transparency demands so that corruption can continue even as international lending is resumed. All three African members of the Security Council could also be threatened with cuts in bilateral US aid.
In 2001, Angola received nearly $90 million worth of assistance through a variety of US programmes. Guinean troops are being trained in border-defence operations by American instructors, and the Bush team is seeking $17.7 million in development aid for Guinea next year. Cameroon, which also takes part in the US military training programme, relies on continued help from the World Bank and IMF.
The three sub-Saharan nations are no doubt aware that Washington has previously levied swift punishment against a Security Council member that opposed its plan to wage war against Iraq. In 1990, Yemen voted against a resolution authorising military force to drive Iraqi occupiers out of Kuwait.
"That will be the most expensive 'no' vote you ever cast," a US diplomat reportedly told Yemen's UN ambassador on that occasion. A $70 million US aid programme for Yemen was terminated a few days later.
"The US is working very hard to make clear that there will be consequences for countries that behave in ways that the US does not like," says Leon Spencer, the director of the non-governmental Washington Office on Africa.
"And when a country is very vulnerable - as is the case with poverty levels in Guinea and with Angola's efforts to emerge from decades of war - the US can act as an enormous obstacle to vital aid."
Washington successfully exerted similar pressures in November when the Security Council voted unanimously in favour of Iraqi disarmament. Cameroon and Guinea were then among the 10 rotating members of the Council that joined the five permanent powers - Britain, China, France, Russia and the US - in approving that resolution.
This time, Cameroon, Guinea and Angola make up half of a six-member group of non-permanent Council members believed to hold malleable positions on war against Iraq. The US must win the votes of at least five of these six countries if its pro-war stance is to prevail in this week's showdown.
Senior members of the Bush team have lobbied the leaders of each of the three African states during the past week. US emissaries have been dispatched to Angola, Cameroon and Guinea, while President George W. Bush and Secretary of State Colin Powell have conferred via telephone with their counterparts in one or more of the targeted countries. In the view of many analysts experienced in UN affairs, all three African nations may well line up behind Washington when the roll is called.
Angola is considered highly likely to support the US position. Cameroon and Guinea, as former French colonies, could still be swayed by France's strong anti-war campaign, "but the overarching reach of US influence in the diplomatic, military and economic areas makes Paris unlikely to be able to outbid the US," the Institute for Policy Studies observes.
If the three African members of the Council do vote for war against Iraq, they will in effect be contradicting positions taken recently by two international bodies of which they are members.
Both the African Union and the Non-Aligned Movement would then be seen as having suffered an embarrassing political defeat. While calling for UN weapons inspections to continue, the two groupings have declared that war would threaten the interests of the developing world
US Bullying African States To Support War
The East African (Nairobi) NEWS March 6, 2003
by Kevin J. Kelley
New York
AS THE UN Security Council nears a showdown vote on war against Iraq, the United States is making an all-out effort to enlist three key African nations in what critics are calling a "coalition of the coerced."
Angola, Cameroon and Guinea, each with a potential swing vote on the Security Council, are the focus of intensive American lobbying in the run-up to the March 7 vote on a US-sponsored resolution authorising military force against Iraq. US officials pressing the three countries are engaging in "bullying and acts tantamount to bribery," according to a Washington-based think tank.
The US preferential trade scheme known as the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa) may be used as a lever to persuade Cameroon and Guinea to support the Iraq war resolution, warns the Institute for Policy Studies, a left-of-centre think tank. In an analysis of how the US is assembling a "coalition of the coerced," the institute points to a stipulation in the Agoa law requiring that nations "not engage in activities that undermine United States national security or foreign policy interests." Failure to vote in Washington's favour in the Security Council could therefore jeopardise Cameroon's and Guinea's eligibility for Agoa trade benefits, the Institute suggests.
Angola has not yet qualified for Agoa because of US objections to the country's record on human-rights and corruption. Inclusion in the trade programme might thus be offered as a reward for Angolan compliance on the Iraq issue.
In addition, Angola's economy is heavily dependent on oil exports to the US and on investments by American energy companies. The war-ravaged country is also seeking reconstruction funding from the World Bank and International Monetary Fund, both of which are strongly influenced by US foreign-policy calculations.
In return for supporting war on Iraq, the Angolan government could see a softening of IMF loan conditions, a London-based advocacy group warned last week.
Angola's ruling elite has stolen roughly $1 billion in oil revenues in each of the past six years, reports Global Witness. And the group suggests that the high-level looters may insist that the IMF ease its financial transparency demands so that corruption can continue even as international lending is resumed. All three African members of the Security Council could also be threatened with cuts in bilateral US aid.
In 2001, Angola received nearly $90 million worth of assistance through a variety of US programmes. Guinean troops are being trained in border-defence operations by American instructors, and the Bush team is seeking $17.7 million in development aid for Guinea next year. Cameroon, which also takes part in the US military training programme, relies on continued help from the World Bank and IMF.
The three sub-Saharan nations are no doubt aware that Washington has previously levied swift punishment against a Security Council member that opposed its plan to wage war against Iraq. In 1990, Yemen voted against a resolution authorising military force to drive Iraqi occupiers out of Kuwait.
"That will be the most expensive 'no' vote you ever cast," a US diplomat reportedly told Yemen's UN ambassador on that occasion. A $70 million US aid programme for Yemen was terminated a few days later.
"The US is working very hard to make clear that there will be consequences for countries that behave in ways that the US does not like," says Leon Spencer, the director of the non-governmental Washington Office on Africa.
"And when a country is very vulnerable - as is the case with poverty levels in Guinea and with Angola's efforts to emerge from decades of war - the US can act as an enormous obstacle to vital aid."
Washington successfully exerted similar pressures in November when the Security Council voted unanimously in favour of Iraqi disarmament. Cameroon and Guinea were then among the 10 rotating members of the Council that joined the five permanent powers - Britain, China, France, Russia and the US - in approving that resolution.
This time, Cameroon, Guinea and Angola make up half of a six-member group of non-permanent Council members believed to hold malleable positions on war against Iraq. The US must win the votes of at least five of these six countries if its pro-war stance is to prevail in this week's showdown.
Senior members of the Bush team have lobbied the leaders of each of the three African states during the past week. US emissaries have been dispatched to Angola, Cameroon and Guinea, while President George W. Bush and Secretary of State Colin Powell have conferred via telephone with their counterparts in one or more of the targeted countries. In the view of many analysts experienced in UN affairs, all three African nations may well line up behind Washington when the roll is called.
Angola is considered highly likely to support the US position. Cameroon and Guinea, as former French colonies, could still be swayed by France's strong anti-war campaign, "but the overarching reach of US influence in the diplomatic, military and economic areas makes Paris unlikely to be able to outbid the US," the Institute for Policy Studies observes.
If the three African members of the Council do vote for war against Iraq, they will in effect be contradicting positions taken recently by two international bodies of which they are members.
Both the African Union and the Non-Aligned Movement would then be seen as having suffered an embarrassing political defeat. While calling for UN weapons inspections to continue, the two groupings have declared that war would threaten the interests of the developing world
